Based on the Mathematical model, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) estimated that the third wave of Covid-19 in India is large as the second wave. Further, the study also said that it “demonstrates plausible mechanisms by which a substantial third wave could occur, while also illustrating that it is unlikely for any such resurgence to be as large as the second wave“.
However, model projections subjected to uncertainties and remain vital to scale up vaccination coverage to mitigate against any eventuality. Preparedness against Covid-19 will help in drawing projected numbers depending on the current modeling exercise.
Here’s What Study Says
As per the ICMR study, plausible mechanisms for a third wave could include a new variant of the virus causing Covid-19. This variant is more transmissible and at the same time capable of escaping prior immunity.
This mechanism includes imposing “lockdowns that are highly effective in limiting transmission” of the viral infection. The study stresses that increase in vaccination efforts could have an important role in mitigating these and future disease waves.
It highlights three key considerations in multi-wave dynamics:
- Individual behavior and societal factors
- Health systems
- Biological factors