As per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, it is expected that monsoon extremes are expected to increase over India and South Asia. Also, the short intense rainy days frequency is likely to rise.
Models also show a “lengthening of the monsoon” all across India by the end of the 21st century. The Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, approved by 195 member countries says that with the South Asian Monsoon precipitation is projected to increase.
Floods, rainfalls, and droughts will also keep on increasing as per the R Krishnan, Executive Director, Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), and Indian Institute of Tropical Research.
He said that droughts will take place more because the soil will lose moisture. Also, there will be more water evaporation because of an increase in temperature, which will decrease soil moisture and lead to droughts.
The report said that experiments with constant forcing indicate that at 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees Celsius global warming level, mean monsoon and precipitation extremes are projected to intensify in summer over India and South Asia.”
Swapna Palickal (one of the authors of the report) said it has been assessed that South Asian Monsoon precipitation has reduced after the middle of the 20th century. It has been caused due to the aerosol induced aerosol forcing.
Palickal also added to her statement that “In the near term of 20-30 years, we aren’t seeing much increase in the rainfall beyond the internal variability change. But both annual and the summer monsoon precipitation will increase till the end of the 21st century.”